Use of chemotherapy in patients with oesophageal, stomach, colon, rectal, liver, pancreatic, lung, and ovarian cancer: an International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) population-based study.

BACKGROUND: There are few data on international variation in chemotherapy use, despite it being a key treatment type for some patients with cancer. Here, we aimed to examine the presence and size of such variation. METHODS: This population-based study used data from Norway, the four UK nations (England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales), eight Canadian provinces (Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, and Saskatchewan), and two Australian states (New South Wales and Victoria). Patients aged 15-99 years diagnosed with cancer in eight different sites (oesophageal, stomach, colon, rectal, liver, pancreatic, lung, or ovarian cancer), with no other primary cancer diagnosis occurring from within the 5 years before to 1 year after the index cancer diagnosis or during the study period were included in the study. We examined variation in chemotherapy use from 31 days before to 365 days after diagnosis and time to its initiation, alongside related variation in patient group differences. Information was obtained from cancer registry records linked to clinical or patient management system data or hospital administration data. Random-effects meta-analyses quantified interjurisdictional variation using 95% prediction intervals (95% PIs). FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2017, of 893 461 patients with a new diagnosis of one of the studied cancers, 111 569 (12·5%) did not meet the inclusion criteria, and 781 892 were included in the analysis. There was large interjurisdictional variation in chemotherapy use for all studied cancers, with wide 95% PIs: 47·5 to 81·2 (pooled estimate 66·4%) for ovarian cancer, 34·9 to 59·8 (47·2%) for oesophageal cancer, 22·3 to 62·3 (40·8%) for rectal cancer, 25·7 to 55·5 (39·6%) for stomach cancer, 17·2 to 56·3 (34·1%) for pancreatic cancer, 17·9 to 49·0 (31·4%) for lung cancer, 18·6 to 43·8 (29·7%) for colon cancer, and 3·5 to 50·7 (16·1%) for liver cancer. For patients with stage 3 colon cancer, the interjurisdictional variation was greater than that for all patients with colon cancer (95% PI 38·5 to 78·4; 60·1%). Patients aged 85-99 years had 20-times lower odds of chemotherapy use than those aged 65-74 years, with very large interjurisdictional variation in this age difference (odds ratio 0·05; 95% PI 0·01 to 0·19). There was large variation in median time to first chemotherapy (from diagnosis date) by cancer site, with substantial interjurisdictional variation, particularly for rectal cancer (95% PI -15·5 to 193·9 days; pooled estimate 89·2 days). Patients aged 85-99 years had slightly shorter median time to first chemotherapy compared with those aged 65-74 years, consistently between jurisdictions (-3·7 days, 95% PI -7·6 to 0·1). INTERPRETATION: Large variation in use and time to chemotherapy initiation were observed between the participating jurisdictions, alongside large and variable age group differences in chemotherapy use. To guide efforts to improve patient outcomes, the underlying reasons for these patterns need to be established. FUNDING: International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (funded by the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Cancer Council Victoria, Cancer Institute New South Wales, Cancer Research UK, Danish Cancer Society, National Cancer Registry Ireland, The Cancer Society of New Zealand, National Health Service England, Norwegian Cancer Society, Public Health Agency Northern Ireland on behalf of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, DG Health and Social Care Scottish Government, Western Australia Department of Health, and Public Health Wales NHS Trust).

Use of radiotherapy in patients with oesophageal, stomach, colon, rectal, liver, pancreatic, lung, and ovarian cancer: an International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) population-based study.

BACKGROUND: There is little evidence on variation in radiotherapy use in different countries, although it is a key treatment modality for some patients with cancer. Here we aimed to examine such variation. METHODS: This population-based study used data from Norway, the four UK nations (England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales), nine Canadian provinces (Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, and Saskatchewan), and two Australian states (New South Wales and Victoria). Patients aged 15-99 years diagnosed with cancer in eight different sites (oesophageal, stomach, colon, rectal, liver, pancreatic, lung, or ovarian cancer), with no other primary cancer diagnosis occurring within the 5 years before to 1 year after the index cancer diagnosis or during the study period were included in the study. We examined variation in radiotherapy use from 31 days before to 365 days after diagnosis and time to its initiation, alongside related variation in patient group differences. Information was obtained from cancer registry records linked to clinical or patient management system data, or hospital administration data. Random-effects meta-analyses quantified interjurisdictional variation using 95% prediction intervals (95% PIs). FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2017, of 902 312 patients with a new diagnosis of one of the studied cancers, 115 357 (12·8%) did not meet inclusion criteria, and 786,955 were included in the analysis. There was large interjurisdictional variation in radiotherapy use, with wide 95% PIs: 17·8 to 82·4 (pooled estimate 50·2%) for oesophageal cancer, 35·5 to 55·2 (45·2%) for rectal cancer, 28·6 to 54·0 (40·6%) for lung cancer, and 4·6 to 53·6 (19·0%) for stomach cancer. For patients with stage 2-3 rectal cancer, interjurisdictional variation was greater than that for all patients with rectal cancer (95% PI 37·0 to 84·6; pooled estimate 64·2%). Radiotherapy use was infrequent but variable in patients with pancreatic (95% PI 1·7 to 16·5%), liver (1·8 to 11·2%), colon (1·6 to 5·0%), and ovarian (0·8 to 7·6%) cancer. Patients aged 85-99 years had three-times lower odds of radiotherapy use than those aged 65-74 years, with substantial interjurisdictional variation in this age difference (odds ratio [OR] 0·38; 95% PI 0·20-0·73). Women had slightly lower odds of radiotherapy use than men (OR 0·88, 95% PI 0·77-1·01). There was large variation in median time to first radiotherapy (from diagnosis date) by cancer site, with substantial interjurisdictional variation (eg, oesophageal 95% PI 11·3 days to 112·8 days; pooled estimate 62·0 days; rectal 95% PI 34·7 days to 77·3 days; pooled estimate 56·0 days). Older patients had shorter median time to radiotherapy with appreciable interjurisdictional variation (-9·5 days in patients aged 85-99 years vs 65-74 years, 95% PI -26·4 to 7·4). INTERPRETATION: Large interjurisdictional variation in both use and time to radiotherapy initiation were observed, alongside large and variable age differences. To guide efforts to improve patient outcomes, underlying reasons for these differences need to be established. FUNDING: International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (funded by the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Cancer Council Victoria, Cancer Institute New South Wales, Cancer Research UK, Danish Cancer Society, National Cancer Registry Ireland, The Cancer Society of New Zealand, National Health Service England, Norwegian Cancer Society, Public Health Agency Northern Ireland on behalf of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, DG Health and Social Care Scottish Government, Western Australia Department of Health, and Public Health Wales NHS Trust).

Population-level utilisation of neoadjuvant radiotherapy for the treatment of rectal cancer.

PURPOSE: International clinical guidelines recommend long- or short-course neoadjuvant radiotherapy for locally advanced rectal cancer. This study aims to examine variation in the use of neoadjuvant radiotherapy for rectal cancer and identify patient and hospital factors that underpin this variation. METHODS AND MATERIALS: We conducted a retrospective, consecutive cohort study using statewide hospitalisation and radiotherapy data from New South Wales, Australia, 2013-2018. Included participants had a primary rectal adenocarcinoma and underwent surgical resection. Factors associated with the use or not of any neoadjuvant radiotherapy, and short versus long-course were explored using multilevel logistic regression models. RESULTS: Of the 2912 people included in the study, 43% received neoadjuvant radiotherapy. There was significant variation in the use of neoadjuvant radiotherapy depending on geographic location. Abdominoperineal excision (odds ratio [OR] = 1.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.53-2.28) and having surgery in a public hospital (OR = 2.34, 95% CI = 1.92-2.87) were both predictors of use. Among those receiving neoadjuvant radiotherapy, 17% received short-course therapy, with short-course declining over the study period. CONCLUSIONS: The use of neoadjuvant radiotherapy for rectal cancer is highly variable, with differences only partially explained by assessable patient-or hospital-level factors. Understanding neoadjuvant radiotherapy utilisation patterns may assist in identifying barriers and opportunities to improve adherence to clinical guidelines.

Risk factors and prognostic implications of diagnosis of cancer within 30 days after an emergency hospital admission (emergency presentation): an International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Greater understanding of international cancer survival differences is needed. We aimed to identify predictors and consequences of cancer diagnosis through emergency presentation in different international jurisdictions in six high-income countries. METHODS: Using a federated analysis model, in this cross-sectional population-based study, we analysed cancer registration and linked hospital admissions data from 14 jurisdictions in six countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK), including patients with primary diagnosis of invasive oesophageal, stomach, colon, rectal, liver, pancreatic, lung, or ovarian cancer during study periods from Jan 1, 2012, to Dec 31, 2017. Data were collected on cancer site, age group, sex, year of diagnosis, and stage at diagnosis. Emergency presentation was defined as diagnosis of cancer within 30 days after an emergency hospital admission. Using logistic regression, we examined variables associated with emergency presentation and associations between emergency presentation and short-term mortality. We meta-analysed estimates across jurisdictions and explored jurisdiction-level associations between cancer survival and the percentage of patients diagnosed as emergencies. FINDINGS: In 857 068 patients across 14 jurisdictions, considering all of the eight cancer sites together, the percentage of diagnoses through emergency presentation ranged from 24·0% (9165 of 38 212 patients) to 42·5% (12 238 of 28 794 patients). There was consistently large variation in the percentage of emergency presentations by cancer site across jurisdictions. Pancreatic cancer diagnoses had the highest percentage of emergency presentations on average overall (46·1% [30 972 of 67 173 patients]), with the jurisdictional range being 34·1% (1083 of 3172 patients) to 60·4% (1317 of 2182 patients). Rectal cancer had the lowest percentage of emergency presentations on average overall (12·1% [10 051 of 83 325 patients]), with a jurisdictional range of 9·1% (403 of 4438 patients) to 19·8% (643 of 3247 patients). Across the jurisdictions, older age (ie, 75-84 years and 85 years or older, compared with younger patients) and advanced stage at diagnosis compared with non-advanced stage were consistently associated with increased emergency presentation risk, with the percentage of emergency presentations being highest in the oldest age group (85 years or older) for 110 (98%) of 112 jurisdiction-cancer site strata, and in the most advanced (distant spread) stage category for 98 (97%) of 101 jurisdiction-cancer site strata with available information. Across the jurisdictions, and despite heterogeneity in association size (I2=93%), emergency presenters consistently had substantially greater risk of 12-month mortality than non-emergency presenters (odds ratio >1·9 for 112 [100%] of 112 jurisdiction-cancer site strata, with the minimum lower bound of the related 95% CIs being 1·26). There were negative associations between jurisdiction-level percentage of emergency presentations and jurisdiction-level 1-year survival for colon, stomach, lung, liver, pancreatic, and ovarian cancer, with a 10% increase in percentage of emergency presentations in a jurisdiction being associated with a decrease in 1-year net survival of between 2·5% (95% CI 0·28-4·7) and 7·0% (1·2-13·0). INTERPRETATION: Internationally, notable proportions of patients with cancer are diagnosed through emergency presentation. Specific types of cancer, older age, and advanced stage at diagnosis are consistently associated with an increased risk of emergency presentation, which strongly predicts worse prognosis and probably contributes to international differences in cancer survival. Monitoring emergency presentations, and identifying and acting on contributing behavioural and health-care factors, is a global priority for cancer control. FUNDING: Canadian Partnership Against Cancer; Cancer Council Victoria; Cancer Institute New South Wales; Cancer Research UK; Danish Cancer Society; National Cancer Registry Ireland; The Cancer Society of New Zealand; National Health Service England; Norwegian Cancer Society; Public Health Agency Northern Ireland, on behalf of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry; the Scottish Government; Western Australia Department of Health; and Wales Cancer Network.

Population-Level Uptake of Moderately Hypofractionated Definitive Radiation Therapy in the Treatment of Prostate Cancer.

PURPOSE: Recent evidence shows the noninferiority of hypofractionated radiation therapy regimens compared with conventional regimens in the treatment of prostate cancer (PCa). Hypofractionation has benefits for both the patient and health care system, because of the shorter treatment duration. Despite this advantage, the uptake of hypofractionation can be slow. Here we investigate the factors influencing the changing use of moderate hypofractionation (HypoRT) for the treatment of PCa. METHODS AND MATERIALS: We conducted a population-based, retrospective, consecutive cohort study using the 2014 to 2018 Outpatient Radiation Oncology Data from public and private treatment facilities in New South Wales, Australia. Included participants had a PCa diagnosis of any risk, and they completed curative-intent external beam radiation therapy without treatment to lymph nodes. Factors potentially affecting use of HypoRT were examined using a 3-level hierarchical logistic regression model. The effects were reported using adjusted, median, or interval odds ratios. RESULTS: The study included 4915 patients. Of these, 4053 patients (82.5%) received conventional fractionation, and 862 patients (17.5%) received HypoRT. HypoRT utilization increased from 5.2% in 2014 to 40.3% in 2018. The treating radiation oncologist, treatment facility, and increasing distance to treatment centers had the greatest influence on HypoRT uptake. The main limitation was the lack of stratification by PCa risk categorization. CONCLUSIONS: Although HypoRT uptake has considerably increased between 2014 and 2018, it remains variable among facilities and treating radiation oncologists. Strategies are being explored to reduce inter-clinician variability.

Lung, breast and bowel cancer treatment for Aboriginal people in New South Wales: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Aboriginal Australians have higher cancer mortality than non-Aboriginal Australians. Lower rates of cancer treatment among Aboriginal people can contribute to this. AIMS: To investigate demographic, clinical and access factors associated with lung, breast and bowel cancer treatment for Aboriginal people compared with non-Aboriginal people in New South Wales, Australia. METHODS: Population-based cohort study using linked routinely collected datasets, including all diagnoses of primary lung, breast or bowel cancer from January 2009 to June 2012. Treatment (surgery, radiotherapy or chemotherapy) within 6 months from diagnosis was measured. Access was measured using minimum distance to radiotherapy or hospital with a cancer-specific multidisciplinary team, visit to a specialist and possession of private health insurance. Logistic regression modelling was employed. RESULTS: There were 587 Aboriginal and 34 015 non-Aboriginal people diagnosed with cancer. For lung cancer, significantly fewer Aboriginal than non-Aboriginal people received surgery (odds ratio 0.46, 95% confidence interval 0.29-0.73, P < 0.001) or any treatment (surgery, chemotherapy or radiotherapy; odds ratio 0.64, 95% confidence interval 0.47-0.88, P = 0.006) after adjusting for sex, age, disease extent and comorbidities. They were less likely to have an attendance with a surgeon (27.0%, 62/230 vs 33.3%, 2865/8597, P = 0.04) compared with non-Aboriginal people. There were no significant differences in cancer treatment for Aboriginal people compared with non-Aboriginal people for breast or bowel cancers after adjusting for patient sex, age, disease extent and comorbidities. CONCLUSION: Aboriginal people were significantly less likely to receive surgery for lung cancer than non-Aboriginal people and had fewer attendances with a surgeon, suggesting a need to strengthen referral pathways.

Patterns of surgical care for women with ovarian cancer in New South Wales.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the delivery of surgical services and outcomes for women with ovarian cancer across New South Wales (NSW). AIM: The study objective was to provide a descriptive analysis of the proportion of women who had surgery for ovarian cancer in NSW in specialist gynaecological oncology hospitals and compare outcomes for women attending specialist and non-specialist services in NSW. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study is a retrospective analysis of women with primary ovarian, fallopian tube or peritoneal cancer from 2009 to 2012. Data were analysed from the NSW Cancer Registry, NSW Admitted Patient Data Collection and Register of Births Deaths and Marriages. Treating hospitals were characterised as public specialist, public non-specialist and private. Morbidity and mortality outcomes are reported. RESULTS: The study included 1106 women. Fifty-seven hospitals performed surgery: seven public specialist, 27 private and 23 public non-specialist hospitals. The highest proportion of surgery was performed in public specialist hospitals (61%). There was considerable variation in the utilisation of public specialist hospitals between local health districts. There was no significant difference in outcomes related to the type of hospital where surgery was performed. CONCLUSIONS: Although the majority of women are having surgery in a specialist gynaecological oncology public hospital across NSW, many are not. Women living in regional and remote NSW were less likely to have their surgery in a specialist hospital. This is the first step in understanding where women in NSW are currently receiving their surgical care, as well as the outcomes related to this.

Ongoing improvements in postoperative survival of glioblastoma in the temozolomide era: a population-based data linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Translating outcomes achieved by clinical trials into routine care is crucial to improving outcomes of glioblastoma (GBM). This study examines the extent to which an advance in treatment for GBM has translated into meaningful, population-level survival benefits in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used linked population-based cancer registry, admitted patient, and mortality datasets. The cohort (n = 2604) included NSW residents aged ≥18 years with a histologically confirmed GBM and a surgical resection between July 2001 and December 2012. The study outcome was all-cause survival, examined using multivariable proportional hazard models. The main study factor was period of surgery, categorized into 4 periods corresponding to different eras in temozolomide (TMZ) use. Survival was examined over time by age (≤70 and >70 years) and for a subcohort selected to approximate the seminal European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (Stupp) protocol trial cohort. TMZ use was estimated using aggregate prescription claims data. RESULTS: Median survival in 2001-2003, 2004-2006, 2007-2009, and 2010-2012 was 7.4, 9.0, 9.8, and 10.6 months, and risk-adjusted 2-year survival was 8.2%, 13.8%, 15.5%, and 18.3%, respectively. Survival improved for those aged ≤70 years and those aged >70 years. In the proxy trial subcohort, median and 2-year survival were 14.3 months and 27.3%, respectively. The volume of TMZ prescribed annually increased rapidly from 2005. CONCLUSIONS: Introduction of TMZ into standard care in 2005 coincided with improvements in survival and a rapid increase in TMZ prescribing. Optimization of care has continued to improve survival of people with GBM in subsequent years.

Pathways to diagnosis of non-small cell lung cancer: a descriptive cohort study.

Little has been published on the diagnostic and referral pathway for lung cancer in Australia. This study set out to quantify general practitioner (GP) and lung specialist attendance and diagnostic imaging in the lead-up to a diagnosis of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and identify common pathways to diagnosis in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. We used linked health data for participants of the 45 and Up Study (a NSW population-based cohort study) diagnosed with NSCLC between 2006 and 2012. Our main outcome measures were GP and specialist attendances, X-rays and computed tomography (CT) scans of the chest and lung cancer-related hospital admissions. Among our study cohort (N = 894), 60% (n = 536) had ≥4 GP attendances in the 3 months prior to diagnosis of NSCLC, 56% (n = 505) had GP-ordered imaging (chest X-ray or CT scan), 39% (N = 349) attended a respiratory physician and 11% (N = 102) attended a cardiothoracic surgeon. The two most common pathways to diagnosis, accounting for one in three people, included GP and lung specialist (respiratory physician or cardiothoracic surgeon) involvement. Overall, 25% of people (n = 223) had an emergency hospital admission. For 14% of people (N = 129), an emergency hospital admission was the only event identified on the pathway to diagnosis. We found little effect of remoteness of residence on access to services. This study identified a substantial proportion of people with NSCLC being diagnosed in an emergency setting. Further research is needed to establish whether there were barriers to the timely diagnosis of these cases.

Using data linkage to enhance the reporting of cancer outcomes of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in NSW, Australia.

BACKGROUND: Aboriginal people are known to be under-recorded in routinely collected datasets in Australia. This study examined methods for enhancing the reporting of cancer incidence among Aboriginal people using linked data methodologies. METHODS: Invasive cancers diagnosed in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, in 2010-2014 were identified from the NSW Cancer Registry (NSWCR). The NSWCR data were linked to the NSW Admitted Patient Data Collection, the NSW Emergency Department Data Collection and the Australian Coordinating Register Cause of Death Unit Record File. The following methods for enhancing the identification of Aboriginal people were used: 'ever-reported', 'reported on most recent record', 'weight of evidence' and 'multi-stage median'. The impact of these methods on the number of cancer cases and age-standardised cancer incidence rates (ASR) among Aboriginal people was explored. RESULTS: Of the 204,948 cases of invasive cancer, 2703 (1.3%) were recorded as Aboriginal on the NSWCR. This increased with enhancement methods to 4184 (2.0%, 'ever'), 3257 (1.6%, 'most recent'), 3580 (1.7%, 'weight of evidence') and 3583 (1.7%, 'multi-stage median'). Enhancement was generally greater in relative terms for males, people aged 25-34 years, people with cancers of localised or unknown degree of spread, people living in urban areas and areas with less socio-economic disadvantage. All enhancement methods increased ASRs for Aboriginal people. The weight of evidence method increased the overall ASR by 42% for males (894.1 per 100,000, 95% CI 844.5-945.4) and 27% for females (642.7 per 100,000, 95% CI 607.9-678.7). Greatest relative increases were observed for melanoma and prostate cancer incidence (126 and 63%, respectively). ASRs for prostate and breast cancer increased from below to above the ASRs of non-Aboriginal people with enhancement of Aboriginal status. CONCLUSIONS: All data linkage methods increased the number of cancer cases and ASRs for Aboriginal people. Enhancement varied by demographic and cancer characteristics. We considered the weight of evidence method to be most suitable for population-level reporting of cancer incidence among Aboriginal people. The impact of enhancement on disparities in cancer outcomes between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people should be further examined.

Self-selection in a population-based cohort study: impact on health service use and survival for bowel and lung cancer assessed using data linkage.

BACKGROUND: In contrast to aetiological associations, there is little empirical evidence for generalising health service use associations from cohort studies. We compared the health service use of cohort study participants diagnosed with bowel or lung cancer to the source population of people diagnosed with these cancers in New South Wales (NSW), Australia to assess the representativeness of health service use of the cohort study participants. METHODS: Population-based cancer registry data for NSW residents aged ≥45 years at diagnosis of bowel or lung cancer were linked to the 45 and Up Study, a NSW population-based cohort study (N~ 267,000). We measured hospitalisation, emergency department (ED) attendance and all-cause survival, and risk factor associations with these outcomes using administrative data for cohort study participants and the source population. We assessed bias in prevalence and risk factor associations using ratios of relative frequency (RRF) and relative odds ratios (ROR), respectively. RESULTS: People from major cities, non-English speaking countries and with comorbidites were under-represented among cohort study participants diagnosed with bowel (n = 1837) or lung (n = 969) cancer by 20-50%. Cohort study participants had similar hospitalisation and ED attendance compared with the source population. One-year survival after major surgical resection was similar, but cohort study participants had up to 25% higher post-diagnosis survival (lung cancer 3-year survival: RRF = 1.24, 95% confidence interval 1.12,1.37). Except for area-based socioeconomic position, risk factors associations with health service use measures and survival appeared relatively unbiased. CONCLUSIONS: Absolute measures of health service use and risk factor associations in a non-representative sample showed little evidence of bias. Non-comparability of risk factor measures of cohort study participants and non-participants, such as area-based socioeconomic position, may bias estimates of risk factor associations. Primary and outpatient care outcomes may be more vulnerable to bias.

Has cancer survival improved for older people as for younger people? New South Wales, 1980-2012.

BACKGROUND: Cancer survival has improved markedly in Australia for all ages but it is still lower in older patients. We hypothesize that the survival gap by age has increased. Our rationale is that treatment constraints in older people and potentially their limited participation in trials may have limited opportunities for survival gain. METHODS: Post-diagnostic five-year cancer-specific mortality rates were analysed by age group for cancers recorded on the NSW Cancer Registry. Live cases were censored on December 31st, 2012. Hazards ratios (HRs) were obtained from proportional hazards regression for 1990-99 and 2000-12 diagnostic periods, using 1980-89 as the reference, adjusting for socio-demographic factors, degree of cancer spread, and for all cancers combined, for cancer sites. RESULTS: Five-year mortality reduced by diagnostic period for all cancers collectively from 53% in 1980-89 to 33% in 2000-12, with decreases for separate cancer sites. Adjusted HRs (95% confidence intervals) were 0.78 (0.77, 0.80) for 1990-99 and 0.61 (0.58, 0.63) for 2000-12 for all cancers combined. The downward trend in HRs was smaller for the 80+ year age group, leading to significantly higher HRs of 0.83 (0.81, 0.87) and 0.73 (0.70, 0.76) for 1990-99 and 2000-12 respectively. Results were similar using competing risk regression and 5-year rather than 10-year age strata. CONCLUSION: The reduction in cancer mortality was smaller in older people, as seen in the USA. Research is needed to achieve the best trade-offs between cancer control and harm avoidance in older people. Multidisciplinary teams have an important contribution to make.

Pancreatectomy is underused in NSW regions with low institutional surgical volumes: a population data linkage study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine differences in the proportions of people diagnosed with pancreatic cancer who underwent pancreatectomy, post-operative outcomes and 5-year survival in different New South Wales administrative health regions of residence. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective analysis of NSW data on pancreatic cancer incidence and surgery, 2005-2013. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The proportion of newly diagnosed patients with pancreatic cancer who were resected in each region; 90-day post-operative mortality; one-year post-operative survival; 5-year post-diagnosis survival. RESULTS: 14% of people diagnosed with pancreatic cancer during 2010-2013 (431 of 3064) underwent pancreatectomy, an average of 108 resections per year. After adjusting for age, sex and comorbidities, the proportion that underwent resection varied significantly between regions, ranging between 8% and 21% (P<0.001). Higher resection rates were not associated with higher post-operative 90-day mortality or lower one-year survival (unadjusted and risk-adjusted analyses). Higher resection rates were associated with higher 5-year post-diagnosis survival: the mean survival in regions with resection rates below 10% was 3.4%, compared with 7.2% in regions with rates greater than 15% (unadjusted and adjusted survival analyses; P<0.001). There was a positive association between regional resection rate and the pancreatectomy volume of hospitals during 2005-2009. An additional 32 people would be resected annually if resection rates in low rate regions were increased to the 80th percentile regional resection rate (18%). CONCLUSION: There is significant geographic variation in the proportion of people with pancreatic cancer undergoing pancreatectomy, and the 5-year survival rate is higher in regions where this proportion is higher.

Validation of administrative hospital data for identifying incident pancreatic and periampullary cancer cases: a population-based study using linked cancer registry and administrative hospital data in New South Wales, Australia.

OBJECTIVES: Informing cancer service delivery with timely and accurate data is essential to cancer control activities and health system monitoring. This study aimed to assess the validity of ascertaining incident cases and resection use for pancreatic and periampullary cancers from linked administrative hospital data, compared with data from a cancer registry (the 'gold standard'). DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Analysis of linked statutory population-based cancer registry data and administrative hospital data for adults (aged ≥18 years) with a pancreatic or periampullary cancer case diagnosed during 2005-2009 or a hospital admission for these cancers between 2005 and 2013 in New South Wales, Australia. METHODS: The sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) of pancreatic and periampullary cancer case ascertainment from hospital admission data were calculated for the 2005-2009 period through comparison with registry data. We examined the effect of the look-back period to distinguish incident cancer cases from prevalent cancer cases from hospital admission data using 2009 and 2013 as index years. RESULTS: Sensitivity of case ascertainment from the hospital data was 87.5% (4322/4939), with higher sensitivity when the cancer was resected (97.9%, 715/730) and for pancreatic cancers (88.6%, 3733/4211). Sensitivity was lower in regional (83.3%) and remote (85.7%) areas, particularly in areas with interstate outflow of patients for treatment, and for cases notified to the registry by death certificate only (9.6%). The PPV for the identification of incident cases was 82.0% (4322/5272). A 2-year look-back period distinguished the majority (98%) of incident cases from prevalent cases in linked hospital data. CONCLUSIONS: Pancreatic and periampullary cancer cases and resection use can be ascertained from linked hospital admission data with sufficient validity for informing aspects of health service delivery and system-level monitoring. Limited tumour clinical information and variation in case ascertainment across population subgroups are limitations of hospital-derived cancer incidence data when compared with population cancer registries.

Patterns in the incidence, mortality and survival of malignant pleural and peritoneal mesothelioma, New South Wales, 1972-2009.

INTRODUCTION: Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) and malignant peritoneal mesothelioma (MPeM) are often grouped together in descriptive epidemiological analyses, resulting in limited understanding of epidemiological patterns for these tumour types. METHODS: We studied patterns in the incidence, mortality and survival of people diagnosed with MPM (n=4,076) and MPeM (n=293) in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, 1972-2009. We also calculated 5-year relative survival for people diagnosed 1972-2006 followed up to 2007. We assessed patterns for each tumour type and histological subtype and, where possible, by combination of these categories. RESULTS: Annual MPM cases steadily increased over time (n=208 in 2009). There was an increasing trend in the MPM age-standardised incidence rate from 1972 up to 1994. This rate increase has levelled off in the past 10 years. Since 1999, 11 cases of MPeM were diagnosed each year, on average. Five-year relative survival remained stable for MPM and MPeM. However, 5-year relative survival in 2002-2006 was substantially higher for people with MPM epithelioid histological subtype (11.7% [95%CI 6.8-18.2%]) compared to all other non-epithelioid histological subtypes (6.9% [95%CI 5.0-9.1%]), a 70% difference. Survival was also greater for women with MPM (13.4% [95%CI 8.5-19.4%]) compared to men (7.0% [95%CI 5.1-9.2%]). INTERPRETATION: MPM incidence rates have stabilised since the mid-1990s, suggesting that maximum incidence levels have been reached. When more up-to-date data are available, survival estimates should be reanalysed to include people likely to benefit from the wide introduction of combination chemotherapy in 2007, including pemetrexed.

Smoking-attributable cancer mortality in NSW, Australia, 1972-2008.

AIM: To estimate the impact of smoking-attributable cancer mortality on trends in cancer mortality in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, between 1972 and 2008. STUDY TYPE: The study is a retrospective analysis of cancer mortality in NSW using NSW Central Cancer Registry data. METHODS: Smoking-attributable cancer deaths were estimated using the smoking impact ratio method, which provides an indirect estimate of exposure to tobacco in the NSW population using lung cancer mortality. Trends in age-standardised cancer mortality rates by cancer type and the number of years of life lost due to smoking-attributable cancer deaths were estimated. RESULTS: In NSW, the cancer mortality rate decreased in males by 26% and females by 19% between 1989 and 2008. Nearly half (44%) of the decrease for males was a result of the decline in smoking-attributable cancer deaths. Despite a decline in the female all-cancer mortality rate, the smoking-attributable cancer mortality rate increased from 20.3 per 100 000 to 26.8 per 100 000 between 1989 and 2008. Smoking-attributable cancer deaths in women increased from around 150 per year in the early 1970s to 1186 in 2008; for men, the number remained stable at just over 2000 deaths per year since the 1980s. Although the lung cancer mortality rate declined in men, lung cancer remains the largest cause of cancer death. Lung cancer has overtaken breast cancer to be the largest cause of cancer death among women, with 17.1% (n = 998) of cancer deaths due to lung cancer in 2008. CONCLUSIONS: Despite declining all-cancer mortality in NSW, around 3330 cancer deaths in 2008 were due to the accumulated hazard of smoking in current and ex-smokers. This highlights the importance of tobacco control as part of a comprehensive cancer control plan.

Changing roles of population-based cancer registries in Australia.

Registries have key roles in cancer incidence, mortality and survival monitoring and in showing disparities across the population. Incidence monitoring began in New South Wales in 1972 and other jurisdictions soon followed. Registry data are used to evaluate outcomes of preventive, screening, treatment and support services. They have shown decreases in cancer incidence following interventions and have been used for workforce and other infrastructure planning. Crude markers of optimal radiotherapy and chemotherapy exist and registry data are used to show shortfalls against these markers. The data are also used to investigate cancer clusters and environmental concerns. Survival data are used to assess service performance and interval cancer data are used in screening accreditation. Registries enable determination of risk of multiple primary cancers. Clinical quality registries are used for clinical quality improvement. Population-based cancer registries and linked administrative data complement clinical registries by providing high-level system-wide data. The USA Commission on Cancer has long used registries for quality assurance and service accreditation. Increasingly population-based registry data in Australia are linked with administrative data on service delivery to assess system performance. Addition oftumour stage and otherprognostic indicators is important forthese analyses and is facilitated by the roll-out of structured pathology reporting. Data linkage with administrative data, following checks on the quality of these data, enables assessment of patterns of care and other performance indicators for health-system monitoring. Australian cancer registries have evolved and increasingly are contributing to broader information networks for health system management.

Look back for the Charlson Index did not improve risk adjustment of cancer surgical outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: The Charlson score is a commonly used measure of comorbidity; however, there is little empirical research into the optimal implementation when studying cancer surgery outcomes using administrative data. We compared four alternative Charlson score implementations, including and excluding metastatic cancer and varying the look-back periods. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Nine years of linked administrative data were used to identify patients undergoing surgery for cancer of the colon, rectum, or lung in New South Wales, Australia. Four binary outcomes of 30- and 365-day mortality, length of stay greater than 21 days, and emergency readmission within 28 days were compared between groups of similar hospitals. Hospital risk adjustment models were compared for alternative Charlson score implementations. RESULTS: Excluding metastatic cancer from the Charlson score improved model performance for short-term outcomes, but there was no implementation that was consistently optimal. Incorporating a look-back period reduced the number of patients for analysis but did not improve hospital risk adjustment. CONCLUSION: Charlson scores for hospital risk adjustment of short-term outcomes of cancer surgery should be calculated excluding metastatic cancer as a separate comorbidity. We found no clear best performing implementation and found no benefit in incorporating any look-back period.